A sustained move under $53.61 will signal the existence of sellers which indicates a bull trap. This will trigger a labored break with potential targets coming in at $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support discover the selling to extend to the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.

A sustained make room $54.00 will indicate the use of buyers. This can also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and just buy stops. The upside momentum is not going to continue and testing $54.98 can be a fantasy for buyers from fuelled trade talks.

Lifting Iranian sanctions will have a significant affect the globe oil market. Iran’s oil reserves include the fourth largest on earth with a production capacity of about 4 million barrels a day, making them the second largest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves account for approximately 10% from the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, on the rate from the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. More than likely Iran include about One million barrels of oil per day to the market and based on the world bank this will lead to the decline in the oil price by $10 per barrel the coming year.

As outlined by Data from OPEC, at the start of 2013 the most important oil deposits are in Venezuela being 20% of world oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Due to the characteristics of the reserves it isn’t always very easy to bring this oil towards the surface due to the limitation on extraction technologies and the cost to extract.

As China’s increased requirement for gas as an option to fossil fuel further reduces overall demand for oil, the rise in supply from Iran and the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil to the market should see the price drop over the next Yr and a few analysts are predicting prices will get into the $30’s.

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