Both if the CBOE future expired and today, once the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there is an important loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite a low volume and I would estimate that these are covered with one single liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is probably short the near future and possibly long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit when the prices are low and have a border after settlement when the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which can be an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE oahu is the auction price for Gemini – a young with a really small volume most of the time.

CME’s model is better, however lower, VWAP about the four major exchanges is a great idea, but if that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on a real brief time span is very limited. Regardless if many large participants might have interests in almost any of these settlement processes they’d probably have similar position and advantages from exactly the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP should have been calculated over many hours instead). The conclusion is we likely will see a great deal of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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