Both if the CBOE future expired and today, once the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there were an amazing loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and i also would guess that they may be covered with a single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is most likely short the near future and perchance long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if the prices are low where you can border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes that are simple to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a tender using a very small volume most of the time.

CME’s model is better, but nonetheless of low quality, VWAP for the four major exchanges is a great idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on just one single minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on this kind of brief time period is quite limited. Even when many large participants would have interests in any of those settlement processes they’d more than likely have the same position and advantages of exactly the same side from the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over many hours instead). In conclusion is that we likely will discover a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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